Market reaction to tariffs was swift and severe.
BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, holds a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2026, with analysts expecting most mineral and metal prices to edge higher, supported by declining tariff uncertainties, robust demand from sectors linked to the transition to net zero and tighter supply.
“In 2026, we forecast that most minerals and metals will average higher than in 2025, as the global economy stabilizes with easing trade frictions,” analysts said in BMI’s year-end report.
Tariff uncertainty peaked in August 2025, and while the firm said it could see flare-ups between the US and individual economies over the coming quarters, its country risk team expects broad tariff uncertainty to continue to decline over 2026.
This will support demand for commodities in general, the firm noted, adding that it does not rule out bouts of volatility, especially as certain metals might face renewed US tariff pressures in the attempt to protect critical domestic industries.
“In particular, we see copper on the cards for further tariffs, with the US Secretary of Commerce required to provide an update on the domestic copper market by June 30 2026, to determine whether to implement a universal duty on refined copper of 15% from 2027 and 30% from 2028,” analysts said.
While China’s domestic housing market remains under pressure, weighing on industrial metals consumption, BMI analysts expect this is likely to be partially offset by robust growth in green energy transition sectors, which is particularly supportive of critical minerals, including copper, aluminum, lithium and nickel.